2010 MLB Predictions

[Last-]

AL Central:

1. White Sox

2. Tigers

3. Twins

4. Royals

5. Indians

 

AL East:

1. Yankees

2. Rays**

3. Red Sox

4. Orioles

5. Blue Jays

 

AL West:

1. Angels

2. Mariners

3. Rangers

4. A's

 

 

---------------------------------------

 

NL Central:

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubbies

4. Reds

5. Astros

6. Pirates

 

NL East:

1. Phillies

2. Braves **

3. Mets

4. Marlins

5. Nationals

 

NL West:

1. Giants

2. Rockies

3. Dodgers

4. D-Backs

5. Padres

 

I went out a little with the Braves as a wild card but as bobby cox last season I think they'll do whats needed to get in. Just so I have it on record now World Series match up will be Cardinals vs Yankees and Yanks win in 6.

[Neoblackhound]

Xx-CHURCHY-xX ]

You have to remember that MLB Network, ESPN, etc, are all a bunch of crazy anti-Yankee prick.

 

Seriously, look at Peter Gammons. We all know he's pro-Boston, it's always been like that, but he chooses the Red Sox EVERY YEAR, no matter what. Also, ever since 2008, everyone has been all over the Rays constantly. Same can be said with the Rockies and 2007. Everyone finds a reason to pick against the Yankees, no matter what it is.

 

That's why I said I wouldn't rely on them.

I still don't see them better, I think Matsui and Damons numbers where just better then anything Granderson and Johnson will put up.

[meauxpack]

BacklasH ]

Call me insane, a homer, a dope for picking the Cubs. I love being the underdog this season. It was such a quiet spring opposed to last year, fresh off 97 wins. This year the hype is down, but the talent is there. Who expected the Cardinals to come out and do what they did last year? Very few people...A lot projected the Cubs and Brewers a top the Central.

 

This team is very similar to the 2008 97 win team. The bullpen is the big question mark here, as the loss of Angel Guzman was a huge blow. Let's face it though, our bullpen cannot possibly regress from the atrocity it was last year led by Kevin Gregg. Our lineup is still among the best in the NL, if guys can play to their potential.

 

Remember this was a team last year that was without their BEST power hitter for over 50 games (A-Ram). Soriano played through injuries a LOT last year and struggled mightily after a hot start to the campaign. Soto was never right from the WBC. Very few guys that participated in the WBC had good years, in fact many had injury plagued seasons. I really like the additions of Byrd and Nady. Nady will be a 4th outfielder, but I love to watch that man hit the ball. Loved watching him when he was in Pittsburgh, and believe me he will play his way into starts if not a full fledged starter. If Fukudome or Soriano struggle, Nady and Tyler Colvin (STUD) are waiting in the wings

 

Our rotation isn't any worse than last year. We lost Harden, BIG DEAL...He was a bust as a Cub. He pitched great down the stretch in 08, but couldn't find his form at all last year. Zambrano is a real wild card. If he can perform and limit the meltdowns, he can have his best season yet. That's been the MO on him for a few seasons now. Hopefully he's matured some. Lilly will be rock solid when he comes back in 2 weeks. Dempster needs to improve on his 09 campaign, though he put up respectable numbers. Randy Wells is confident and I really like his stuff. I think 2009 was not a fluke for him. Silva looks like a man reborn. This spring he put up real solid numbers, hopefully that can continue. He is battling Tom Gorzelanny for the #5 spot once Lilly returns. Gorzelanny also missed a lot of bats this spring, but his inconsistancies need to be fewer and further between.

 

I think with the help of new hitting coach Rudy Jamarillo, Soriano can work back to form as he has vowed to do this season. Soto trimmed 40 pounds to get back into shape after a lackadaisical offseason last year. Aramis looks to return to form and D-Lee looks solid as ever. Fukudome is in his 3rd season in MLB now, so it's a make or bust year really for him. Fontenot/Baker are nothing special, hence why they will be relegated to the 8 spot for the better part of the season. Add in the new face and great clubhouse spirit of Marlon Byrd, subtract Bradley and you can have a winning formula.

 

The Cubs have a very soft schedule to open the season and could build a steady momentum, dictating the pace of the season much like in 2008. A lot of people have forgotten how much potential this team has for success. To think of all the injuries and poor performances, individually and as a whole, last season and this team still managed 83 wins. That is an incredible feat.

 

This is a team undoubtedly surrounded by "if's" and "question marks," but winning teams tend to work those out as the season wears on. We shall find out if the 2010 Cubs have that magic. My hunch is yes and I'm calling a 90-94 win season in the making.

 

90-94 wins? pass the chronic homie. You still have "Bunny Hop" Soriano, Geovany "Cheech Marin" Soto, "Crazy Eyes" Zambrano anchoring that "team" right? D.Lee has been extremely streaky the last couple years, A.Ram shows up when he wants to, and you guys shipped off your 2nd best hitter from last year to the Mariners for a $7.5M replacement level pitcher. I can see them getting better, but even 85 wins would be a HUGE over-achievement.

 

The Cards have the 2 best pitchers and 2 of the top 3 or 4 hitters in the division (including the greatest hitter on the face of the planet). All told, the Cards lineup is at least as good as anyone else in the central, and their rotation is MUCH better than anyone else's, save possibly Cinci if all of their young guys put it together. I see another summer of indigestion for Lou. The best the Cubs can hope for is to be battling the Brewers for second place without much shot of a wild card berth.

 

I think we can all agree that it will be a lot of fun watching Zambrano lose his shit and Soriano strikeout and then boot cans of corn with that stupid ballet move. Jim Hendry is my favorite GM.

[o-BacklasH-o]

The fact that you called Milton Bradley our 2nd best hitter last year totally offsets anything smart you may have said.

 

Also I won't deny your lineup is scary in the middle and your pitching is tough at the top of the rotation (with your yearly reclamation project being Brad Penny this year). Jaime Garcia at the back end is still a bit of a question mark. Your success or failure, like the Cubs last year, relies on your key guys coming through and staying healthy. The Cubs couldn't stay healthy, nor players play to their potential and they faltered miserably. If something happens to Carp or Wainwright, the whole dynamic of your team changes. Don't get cocky, it's only April.

[Prane]

BacklasH ]

The fact that you called Milton Bradley our 2nd best hitter last year totally offsets anything smart you may have said.

 

Also I won't deny your lineup is scary in the middle and your pitching is tough at the top of the rotation (with your yearly reclamation project being Brad Penny this year). Jaime Garcia at the back end is still a bit of a question mark. Your success or failure, like the Cubs last year, relies on your key guys coming through and staying healthy. The Cubs couldn't stay healthy, nor players play to their potential and they faltered miserably. If something happens to Carp or Wainwright, the whole dynamic of your team changes. Don't get cocky, it's only April.

 

I'm with Lash but Meaux had me on the floor with his nicknames. Especially Geovany "Cheech Marin" Soto.

[o-BacklasH-o]

Yup those had me laughing too. He forgot John Grablow lol.

[meauxpack]

BacklasH ]

The fact that you called Milton Bradley our 2nd best hitter last year totally offsets anything smart you may have said.

 

wOBA (weighted on-base average) for the 2009 Chicago Cubs (min. 350 PA):

1. Derek Lee .412

2. Kosuke Fukodome .346

3. Milton Bradley .345

4. Ryan Theriot .318

 

link

 

If you don't know about wOBA, look it up. You'll thank me. Board Game's bat was worth 4.4 wins over replacement last year. I don't know how his demeanor affected the clubhouse, but I do know that he was much better than most people in Chicago gave him credit for. He didn't do himself any favors, but the expectations of both the front office and the fan base were much higher than could have reasonably been expected based on the body of his 9 previous seasons. Dude got scapegoated. Soriano and Soto had a lot more to do with the disaster of last season than Milton, but they weren't so easy to blame and get rid of.

 

I don't feel terribly cocky about my cards, and I realize they are some elbow inflammation away from watching october baseball from the 19th hole, but I fell off my chair when I read your prediction of 90-94 wins for the cubs. It'll be a fun summer regardless. Especially on days when Zambrano pitches. ;D

[o-BacklasH-o]

I know what wOBA is...

 

Bradley wasn't TERRIBLE in Chicago at the plate, but he was severely underwhelming. Oh and his WAR was just over 1. So he helped the Cubs win a WHOPPING 1 game over a replacement last year...Not praise worthy at all.

 

His WAR was only higher than Soriano, out of any Cub regular (Fontenot and Baker platooned, so that really doesn't count). Soriano's WAR was brutal last year, I can't recall ever seeing a negative war for a starter, yet he had -(.7). There's no doubt our bats need to get it going.

 

Take a few things into consideration though before you mock my prediction, as there was actually a lot of logic behind it.

 

1. Aramis Ramirez was hurt for over 2 months last year AND he lacked his power stroke once he returned, due to the injury. He is 100% healthy this year and should produce as he always has.

 

2. Soriano had the worst year of his career last year. He got out of the gate red hot last year, then tried to play through leg injuries. The leg injuries affected his entire year and he was NEVER right. He is obviously on the downslope of his career, but he isn't old either. There's still more left in the tank, though the speed will never return.

 

3. Soto. He had a horrid campaign that started with trouble and ended with obesity. He was disgustingly fat last year, trimming 40 pounds off his frame this offseason is a start. He still needs to prove his Rookie of the Year and PCL numbers were not a fluke. People can say steroids all they want, because he shrunk so much this season, but bottom line is he was just fat last year. He has the goods behind the plate and he can't possibly regress any more at the dish. Though off to a slow start, I think he'll have a bounce back year.

 

4. Marlon Byrd. You bring a great clubhouse guy in like this who isn't too shabby with the bat or the glove and it pays dividends. He is always looking to help the younger guys and keeps everyone motivated. He will have another rock solid season this year, comparable to last year with Texas.

 

5. The X-Factor and Tyler Colvin. If Soriano or Fukudome struggle there are TWO very capable players waiting in the wings. Nady has shown what he can do with the bat in a full season and he is raking in his at bats this year. Colvin had a smoking hot spring and the former top prospect can be a more than adequate spot-starter and eventual starter in the bigs. Also Lou has the option to play with matchups with Nady/Fukudome/Colvin. Nady can also spot start at 1st on days off for D-Lee (though those don't come up too often).

 

6. Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly. If Dempster put up his second half numbers during the first half of the season, he would have been in the All Star game with Ted. There is a big reason he did not though. He had immense off the field family issues, with the illness of his newborn. Once his daughter began to get healthy, he put up excellent numbers. He'll have an even better year this year and he is the motivation this club needs.

 

7. The IF factor...This is where the Cubs get looked over, because there are too many "what if's."

 

IF Zambrano can keep his cool: Zambrano has promised to attempt to keep his composure more on the mound this year. That has always been the knock on him. If he could avoid the meltdowns, he is no doubt an all-star caliber pitcher. Time will tell the tale if he reach that level again.

 

IF Rudy Jamarillo can make this lineup one of the deadliest in baseball again: The 2008 Cubs led the NL in Runs Scored with 850. The 2009 Cubs had around 700. That's a whopping difference. A lot of Cubs hitters were pressing last year, with the lack of Aramis and trying to replace DeRosa's bat. A deep bench and instruction from one of the game's best hitting instructors should fix that. If not, God help us lol.

 

IF the bullpen can do it's job. The Cubs pen in 2009 was among the worse in the league. The 2010 Cubs bullpen has started out looking like the worst in the league. Aside from Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall (and James Russel in a limited capacity), then pen has been AWFUL. The 2010 Cubs have led in EVERY single game this season, but are only 3-4. Why you ask? The bullpen already has 3 losses. Aside from Zambrano's opening day nightmare, the Starting Pitching has been excellent.

 

Once Lilly returns and either Gorzelanny/Silva are forced into the bullpen, that will add a solid veteran arm to the pen. Silva I believe is the favorite to keep the starter's job. He has been great all spring and in his first start this season (we are long over due for a reclamation project of our own LOL).

 

The Cubs still lack a sure-fire 8th inning guy, but that could come in the form of a callup of one of two stud prospects: Blake Parker or Andrew Ca$hner. Cashner originally was a reliever, but his stuff was so nasty they want to stretch him into a starter. They could go with the Joba approach for him. While Blake Parker has been very good as a reliever/closer in the minors. He was drafted as a Catcher, then converted to a pitcher. He is still not mechanically sound at age 24, so they may not rush to bring him up. The Rickett's have given Hendry the green light to bring in another player or two, so he may make a move for a big time bullpen arm in the coming weeks/months if our current pen continues to struggle.

 

Oh and one last thing to consider the injury plagued and underachieving 2009 Cubs had a 47-32 record against the Central last year, best of any team in the division, including your Cardinals (That's 15 games over .500 for those keeping track at home).

 

Man this post would likely make Goat proud.

[meauxpack]

BacklasH ]

 

1. Aramis Ramirez was hurt for over 2 months last year AND he lacked his power stroke once he returned, due to the injury. He is 100% healthy this year and should produce as he always has.

Losing Aramis was a huge blow last year, no arguing that. But the Cubs were way more than a half season of A.Ram from competing. For what it's worth (admittedly, not much), a .280/.343/.506 line with 23HR for Aramis this year.

 

BacklasH ]

 

2. Soriano had the worst year of his career last year. He got out of the gate red hot last year, then tried to play through leg injuries. The leg injuries affected his entire year and he was NEVER right. He is obviously on the downslope of his career, but he isn't old either. There's still more left in the tank, though the speed will never return.

The only way that Soriano will be a successful big league hitter again is if he completely changes his approach. He no longer has the bat speed to swing that 37" club and try to drop bombs. Teams realize there is no reason to throw him fastballs and Soriano is as stubborn as they come. If he were to aim to make more contact and try to use his speed, which is most definitely still there, he COULD salvage some of his value. I don't see that happening. Look on the brightside, only 5 more years at $18M per.

BacklasH ]

3. Soto. He had a horrid campaign that started with trouble and ended with obesity. He was disgustingly fat last year, trimming 40 pounds off his frame this offseason is a start. He still needs to prove his Rookie of the Year and PCL numbers were not a fluke. People can say steroids all they want, because he shrunk so much this season, but bottom line is he was just fat last year. He has the goods behind the plate and he can't possibly regress any more at the dish. Though off to a slow start, I think he'll have a bounce back year.

I'd never heard any steroid talk about Soto, and I wouldn't have put much stock in it if I had. The longer he struggles, the more likely it is that he unable to adjust to what pitchers are doing to him. Dude feasted on fastballs in 2008. Last year, he didn't see many and was AWFUL against any breaking ball. He won't see anymore fastballs until he proves he can hit a slider/curve. IMO, its more likely that 2008 was an aberration and he returns to something closer to his career minor league numbers.

 

BacklasH ]

4. Marlon Byrd. You bring a great clubhouse guy in like this who isn't too shabby with the bat or the glove and it pays dividends. He is always looking to help the younger guys and keeps everyone motivated. He will have another rock solid season this year, comparable to last year with Texas.

I think Byrd will be a decent addition for you guys THIS year. I'm glad that you signed him for 3 years. His defense will not be as good as you expect it to be and will deteriorate further quickly.

 

BacklasH ]

5. The X-Factor and Tyler Colvin. If Soriano or Fukudome struggle there are TWO very capable players waiting in the wings. Nady has shown what he can do with the bat in a full season and he is raking in his at bats this year. Colvin had a smoking hot spring and the former top prospect can be a more than adequate spot-starter and eventual starter in the bigs. Also Lou has the option to play with matchups with Nady/Fukudome/Colvin. Nady can also spot start at 1st on days off for D-Lee (though those don't come up too often).

If Soriano or Fukodome struggle, they will still be out there for 5+ games per week. There is no such thing as a $13M-$18M fourth outfielder. The Front Office will be unwilling to admit those contracts as "sunk costs". Nady's arm is a HUGE liability in RF and Colvin has a grand total of 4 hits above AA. It's good to have depth in case of injury, but I would be very surprised if either of those guys got anything more than spot starts.

 

BacklasH ]

6. Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly. If Dempster put up his second half numbers during the first half of the season, he would have been in the All Star game with Ted. There is a big reason he did not though. He had immense off the field family issues, with the illness of his newborn. Once his daughter began to get healthy, he put up excellent numbers. He'll have an even better year this year and he is the motivation this club needs.

Dumpster is undoubtedly your best pitcher. I think his ceiling is probably around a low to mid-3 ERA, but he is basically a fastball/slider pitcher. Any improvement by Dempster will likely be offset by regression by Wells and Lilly. Lilly's ERA was almost a full run lower than his xFIP and Wells' was 1.2 runs lower than his xFIP. That kind of difference is generally unsustainable, and in Wells' case he outperformed his minor league history by over a full run. It's possible they'll continue their good fortune, but not likely.

 

BacklasH ]

7. The IF factor...This is where the Cubs get looked over, because there are too many "what if's."

 

IF Zambrano can keep his cool: Zambrano has promised to attempt to keep his composure more on the mound this year. That has always been the knock on him. If he could avoid the meltdowns, he is no doubt an all-star caliber pitcher. Time will tell the tale if he reach that level again.

 

IF Rudy Jamarillo can make this lineup one of the deadliest in baseball again: The 2008 Cubs led the NL in Runs Scored with 850. The 2009 Cubs had around 700. That's a whopping difference. A lot of Cubs hitters were pressing last year, with the lack of Aramis and trying to replace DeRosa's bat. A deep bench and instruction from one of the game's best hitting instructors should fix that. If not, God help us lol.

 

IF the bullpen can do it's job. The Cubs pen in 2009 was among the worse in the league. The 2010 Cubs bullpen has started out looking like the worst in the league. Aside from Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall (and James Russel in a limited capacity), then pen has been AWFUL. The 2010 Cubs have led in EVERY single game this season, but are only 3-4. Why you ask? The bullpen already has 3 losses. Aside from Zambrano's opening day nightmare, the Starting Pitching has been excellent.

Zambrano's meltdowns will continue as long as he continues to struggle. The reason he struggles is because he's losing his "stuff". Every one of his pitch values has been in decline. Last year his fastball, generally his best pitch, was down to 9.1 runs above average from 30.5 (!) raa in 2005. His fastball and splitter were his only two above average pitches last year. In 2007, he didn't have a single below average pitch. Combine that with the fact that dude is clearly unstable and the results will keep me watching all summer

 

The effect of a hitting coach is AWLAYS overstated. The results always show that some guys will progress while others regress. Banking on a hitting instructor to turn a team around is like going to a psychic to get the winning lottery numbers.

 

The good news for the Cubs is that predicting bullpen performance is a pretty tough task. The tough thing for you guys is that your closer often has a lot of trouble throwing strikes. If he throws strikes, he'll be effective but thats no given. The only other guy in your bullpen who's been able to get anyone out should probably be given a shot in your rotation. Sean Marshall has been UNBELIEVABLE so far this year. It seems like such a waste to keep him as a 7th inning/long relief guy. He could be sooo much more valuable.

 

BacklasH ]

Once Lilly returns and either Gorzelanny/Silva are forced into the bullpen, that will add a solid veteran arm to the pen. Silva I believe is the favorite to keep the starter's job. He has been great all spring and in his first start this season (we are long over due for a reclamation project of our own LOL).

 

The Cubs still lack a sure-fire 8th inning guy, but that could come in the form of a callup of one of two stud prospects: Blake Parker or Andrew Ca$hner. Cashner originally was a reliever, but his stuff was so nasty they want to stretch him into a starter. They could go with the Joba approach for him. While Blake Parker has been very good as a reliever/closer in the minors. He was drafted as a Catcher, then converted to a pitcher. He is still not mechanically sound at age 24, so they may not rush to bring him up. The Rickett's have given Hendry the green light to bring in another player or two, so he may make a move for a big time bullpen arm in the coming weeks/months if our current pen continues to struggle.

 

Oh and one last thing to consider the injury plagued and underachieving 2009 Cubs had a 47-32 record against the Central last year, best of any team in the division, including your Cardinals (That's 15 games over .500 for those keeping track at home).

 

Man this post would likely make Goat proud.

Counting on young guys to anchor the back end of a bullpen can get you into a LOT of trouble. Just ask the Cards last year. Sometimes it works out great, but most of the time it is an exercise in patience.

 

yet they still finished with only 83 wins.

 

I'll see your goat post, and raise you a goat response! ;D

 

[o-BacklasH-o]

Your prediction for Aramis is laughable dude. That's like me saying Pujols will only hit .290 with 30 bombs. For the sake of this argument we will ignore 2003, since he was dealt here midway through the season. History doesn't lie and as a Cub he has never hit less than 26 home runs in a season or slugged lower than .516 (which came last year). Despite the time missed and the injury affecting his power, he still hit 15 home runs with a .317 average in 2009. Keep in mind he was hitting around .360 last year when he went down with the injury, so God only knows how good of a season he could have had with a healthy shoulder. He has never hit lower than .289 as a Cub btw. You project him for his worst full season as a Cub, that is a very bold prediction.

 

I agree for the most part about Soriano (especially about that humongous bat), but he will never be a base-stealing threat again. He may never even approach 15 steals in a season again, he has lost a few steps with his leg injuries.

 

It's really hard for me to chalk up his ROY numbers as a fluke. Especially with what he did in the PCL the year prior in AAA. The bat speed is still there, he just needs to show a lot more patience on the breaking stuff. He really looked comfortable at the plate today after hitting an absolute bomb into the wind onto Waveland. It's 1 game though, but one big hit can change a hitter's whole perspective.

 

I agree somewhat on Byrd, but we should get 3 very solid years from him. 3 years was about the perfect length for this contract if you ask me. He isn't old by any stretch and by the end of the contract he will have just turned 36 (32 now). He will lose a little in the field by then, but nothing of Andruw Jones proportions.

 

Put it this way, despite the money Soriano is getting paid if he struggles he will lose more and more playing time. I don't want to see that much money on the pine, nor would anyone, but he will at least get every 3rd day off if he keeps struggling. I still have some minute hope he can turn it around at the plate. Fukudome is tearing the cover off the ball and has had much more consistent swings in the box. He has been a fast starter the past 2 years though, so let's see if he can sustain this success. Lou will still likely give Nady a lot of starts against Southpaws, but he is a great bat off the bench as well. Colvin will get the least amount of at bats in the outfield rotation, but if it gets to a point where he isn't hitting or starting a game or two a week he will get sent down to AAA as not to blow the year for him.

 

Dempster's ceiling is a low to mid 3 era pitcher, with a good amount of K's and a decent WHIP. He thrives on his sinking 2 seamer and slider. Lilly is our ace, there is no doubting that. Your lack of faith in him (and Wells) is based on a flawed statistic. By the same token, I could say it's unlikely for Carpenter AND Wainwright to reproduce their 2009 numbers as Carp was over 1 and Wainright a little under 1 in that category. Take into account the odd wind factors of Wrigley too. On a day where it's blowing in, it takes a line drive to hit one out, below the wind. On a day when it's howling out...a routine fly could be a home run.

 

I agree with you that Marshall could be very valuable as a starter, but we DON'T need him in our rotation right now. Our starting pitching will be our strength, we need a reliable arm (especially a left-handed arm) in the pen. Grablow was a bad pick up last year, he is a left-handed specialist...specializing in serving up leads...Marmol will be fine this year. He has his confidence back and he isn't stressing and competing for a job like he was last year. He has been scary good this year. He is virtually unhittable, the only thing that stands in his way is his command at times. It appears, at this time, he has ironed out those issues. His BAA is just disgusting, but his walk rate (particularly last year) was even more disgusting. I think he takes a big step towards the elite relievers this year, the Cubs need him to.

 

There isn't much more we can do if the rest of the pen struggles. We have to make changes eventually. This early in the season it will be hard to acquire a big time arm in the pen, nor will the front office be willing to shell out more money without testing out some of our young talent. Jeff Gray was called up today and Caridad was placed on the 15 day DL. Gray had a decent year with Oakland last year and he doesn't walk batters, which is useful out of the pen. Gray was greeted by allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, and 2 ER (while sporting Kerry Wood's 34 for the first time since Wood left). He came away with a win though, because of a great 8th inning rally by the offense against former Cub LaTroy Hawkins. Man I love when he comes in to pitch against the Cubs, because we rock him every time out. I was sad when he departed from the Astros in the offseason, but then ecstatic when the Brew Crew signed him LOL.

[meauxpack]

BacklasH ]

Your prediction for Aramis is laughable dude. That's like me saying Pujols will only hit .290 with 30 bombs. For the sake of this argument we will ignore 2003, since he was dealt here midway through the season. History doesn't lie and as a Cub he has never hit less than 26 home runs in a season or slugged lower than .516 (which came last year). Despite the time missed and the injury affecting his power, he still hit 15 home runs with a .317 average in 2009. Keep in mind he was hitting around .360 last year when he went down with the injury, so God only knows how good of a season he could have had with a healthy shoulder. He has never hit lower than .289 as a Cub btw. You project him for his worst full season as a Cub, that is a very bold prediction.

 

I left out the important part there. oops. Not my prediction, it's the ZIPS total projection for him. I'd be fairly surprised if he didn't outhit the projection.

 

BacklasH ]

It's really hard for me to chalk up his ROY numbers as a fluke. Especially with what he did in the PCL the year prior in AAA. The bat speed is still there, he just needs to show a lot more patience on the breaking stuff. He really looked comfortable at the plate today after hitting an absolute bomb into the wind onto Waveland. It's 1 game though, but one big hit can change a hitter's whole perspective.

 

It's not that he can't do it, because he did for a season. The problem is that he absolutely CANNOT hit breaking pitches. Check out his pitch type values. He hammered fastballs in 2008, but until he shows he can hit breaking stuff, he wont see any fastballs. He needs to make the adjustment, or just hope for a lot of 3-1 counts.

 

BacklasH ]

Dempster's ceiling is a low to mid 3 era pitcher, with a good amount of K's and a decent WHIP. He thrives on his sinking 2 seamer and slider. Lilly is our ace, there is no doubting that. Your lack of faith in him (and Wells) is based on a flawed statistic. By the same token, I could say it's unlikely for Carpenter AND Wainwright to reproduce their 2009 numbers as Carp was over 1 and Wainright a little under 1 in that category. Take into account the odd wind factors of Wrigley too. On a day where it's blowing in, it takes a line drive to hit one out, below the wind. On a day when it's howling out...a routine fly could be a home run.

 

It's not that I doubt Lilly. He's a good pitcher, but an ace? He's only had 2 seasons of 20+ starts and a sub-4.00 ERA. Last year was a great year for him, but repeating or improving on that year seems unlikely based on the previous decade he's spent in the bigs. With Randy, it's just a matter of doing it again. It's pretty rare for a guy to have an easier time getting out big leaguers than he did minor leaguers. Is it possible that he'll repeat with a 3.00 ERA? sure. Would I bet on it? Absolutely not.

 

To clarify, I don't think the Cubs will finish any worse than 2nd or 3rd in the Central. I think they are a competent team, but 90+ wins would be an unbelievable surprise. It would take EVERYTHING going their way. Regardless, it will be a fun summer of baseball watching the Central shake out. It always is.

[Xx-CHURCHY-xX]

[o-BacklasH-o]

LOL wtf Churchy?

 

And yes Meaux, it is always a blast watching the Central unfold. If you think about it every season there is a relatively big surprise in the division (including 2008 when Milwaukee made the playoffs as the Wild Card).

[o-BacklasH-o]

Standings at the end of the 4th week of the season the standings shape up like this:

 

AL Central:

 

1. Twins 16-9

2. Tigers 16-10

3. Indians 10-14

4. White Sox 10-15

5. Royals 10-15

 

AL East:

 

1. Rays 18-7

2. Yankees 16-8

3. Jays 13-13

4. Red Sox 11-14

5. O's 7-18

 

AL West:

 

1. Rangers 13-12

2. A's 13-13

3. Angels 12-14

4. Mariners 11-14

 

NL Central:

 

1. Cards 17-8

2. Cubs 13-13

3. Reds 12-13

4. Brewers 10-15

5. Pirates 10-15

6. 'Stros 8-16

 

NL East:

 

1. Phillies 14-10

2. Mets 14-11

3. Marlins 13-12

4. Nats 13-12

5. Braves 11-14

 

NL West:

 

1. Padres 16-9

2. Giants 14-10

3. Rockies 12-13

4. D-Backs 11-14

5. Dodgers 11-14

[o-BacklasH-o]

I know you're going to hate this Meaux, but I feel very excited after what the Cubs have done in April. Battling back to finish .500 through the 1st month of the season, despite the pen losing a handful (or two handfuls lol) of games. The offense is really streaking and coming together. The patience of the hitters, is eerily reminiscent of 2008. Everybody is hitting, except the 2 most consistent hitters in the lineup, historically anyway (D-Lee and A-Ram). The Starting Pitching has been phenomenal and the move to put Z in the Setup Role looks like a wise decision thus far. Gives us a reliable right-handed bridge to Marmol, opposite Marshall. A look at the Cubs lineup batting averages:

 

1. SS Theriot .355

2. RF Fukudome .342 5 homers 17 rbi

3. 1B D-Lee .221 (walking a lot and still driving in runs though)

4. CF Byrd .354 5 homers 19 rbi

5. 3B Ramirez .155 (shaking my head at this brutal start...has been hitting balls hard lately, hopefully will break out in May)

6. LF Soriano .325 6 homers 17 rbi

7. 2B Fontenot .303

8. C Soto .322 with a .487 OBP (No, that's not a typo, he has 19 walks already this year)

 

Colvin is also hitting .289 in spot starts and pinch hit appearances. Jeff Baker isn't doing so hot and Fontenot will continue to see more starts/abs, perhaps even against lefties if he stays hot.

 

Jamarillo seems to be preaching a much more patient approach and it's paying dividends. It seems every at bat is a quality at bat by the hitters, sans Lee and Ramirez. If the rest of the lineup can sustain this pace and D-Lee and Ramirez snap out of their funks, it could be the 2008 offense all over again. I love Marlon Byrd more and more every day. He and Theriot are tied for the league lead in multi-hit games. The lineup has been tearing the cover off the ball and the subs/spot starters haven't been bad either. Soriano hasn't looked this good in over a year and a half. He has 3 multi hit games in a row and 4 homers in his last 3. He hasn't done anything CLOSE to that since 2008. That's a very good sign of things to come. Fukudome vowed to be much improved this year, his 3rd in MLB. He's been very patient as always, but has been driving in runs and hitting for power moreso than in years past.

 

The lineup lacks speed obviously, but with the top of the order coming through for the rbi men they won't struggle to manufacture runs in the long run. I know a month is a relatively small sample size, but as a diehard fan I can't help but be a little excited about the future of this team going forward. The need to stay within shouting distance of the Cards in the Central and hopefully they can add a big time bullpen arm.

[meauxpack]

BacklasH ]

I know you're going to hate this Meaux, but I feel very excited after what the Cubs have done in April. Battling back to finish .500 through the 1st month of the season, despite the pen losing a handful (or two handfuls lol) of games. The offense is really streaking and coming together. The patience of the hitters, is eerily reminiscent of 2008. Everybody is hitting, except the 2 most consistent hitters in the lineup, historically anyway (D-Lee and A-Ram). The Starting Pitching has been phenomenal and the move to put Z in the Setup Role looks like a wise decision thus far. Gives us a reliable right-handed bridge to Marmol, opposite Marshall. A look at the Cubs lineup batting averages:

 

1. SS Theriot .355

2. RF Fukudome .342 5 homers 17 rbi

3. 1B D-Lee .221 (walking a lot and still driving in runs though)

4. CF Byrd .354 5 homers 19 rbi

5. 3B Ramirez .155 (shaking my head at this brutal start...has been hitting balls hard lately, hopefully will break out in May)

6. LF Soriano .325 6 homers 17 rbi

7. 2B Fontenot .303

8. C Soto .322 with a .487 OBP (No, that's not a typo, he has 19 walks already this year)

 

Colvin is also hitting .289 in spot starts and pinch hit appearances. Jeff Baker isn't doing so hot and Fontenot will continue to see more starts/abs, perhaps even against lefties if he stays hot.

 

Jamarillo seems to be preaching a much more patient approach and it's paying dividends. It seems every at bat is a quality at bat by the hitters, sans Lee and Ramirez. If the rest of the lineup can sustain this pace and D-Lee and Ramirez snap out of their funks, it could be the 2008 offense all over again. I love Marlon Byrd more and more every day. He and Theriot are tied for the league lead in multi-hit games. The lineup has been tearing the cover off the ball and the subs/spot starters haven't been bad either. Soriano hasn't looked this good in over a year and a half. He has 3 multi hit games in a row and 4 homers in his last 3. He hasn't done anything CLOSE to that since 2008. That's a very good sign of things to come. Fukudome vowed to be much improved this year, his 3rd in MLB. He's been very patient as always, but has been driving in runs and hitting for power moreso than in years past.

 

The lineup lacks speed obviously, but with the top of the order coming through for the rbi men they won't struggle to manufacture runs in the long run. I know a month is a relatively small sample size, but as a diehard fan I can't help but be a little excited about the future of this team going forward. The need to stay within shouting distance of the Cards in the Central and hopefully they can add a big time bullpen arm.

 

[o-BacklasH-o]

They suck. I've lost all hope. As bad as this division is, it appears that this team is just doomed. The bullpen and pitching performs, the bats don't. The bats are there and the bullpen collapses. It's a lose-lose. Time to clean house at the deadline and pray to contend in 2-3 years. Thank GOD I have the Hawks to be happy about. Hopefully the Bulls and Bears will be contenders this year, because now that the Hawks finally hoisted the cup it is going to be a LONNNNNG summer of crappy Cubs play.

[Prane]

BacklasH ]

They suck. I've lost all hope. As bad as this division is, it appears that this team is just doomed. The bullpen and pitching performs, the bats don't. The bats are there and the bullpen collapses. It's a lose-lose. Time to clean house at the deadline and pray to contend in 2-3 years. Thank GOD I have the Hawks to be happy about. Hopefully the Bulls and Bears will be contenders this year, because now that the Hawks finally hoisted the cup it is going to be a LONNNNNG summer of crappy Cubs play.

 

Thanks for taking off the Beer goggles and joining us few logical Cubs fans.

[CpDude05]

And the Mairners!!! Very disappointed, we have no bats! They say there game is small ball, and that's true. They win when they play small ball right, but you can't expect to win only scoring 1-2 runs a game, if that! The pitching hasn't been horrible this year, but Felix needs to step up, Lee is doing good, Fister. But here again, even if they pitch good games and give up a few runs. Our bats can't score them!

 

NEXT YEAR!! lol

[Neoblackhound]

CpDude05 ]

And the Mairners!!! Very disappointed' date=' we have no bats! They say there game is small ball, and that's true. They win when they play small ball right, but you can't expect to win only scoring 1-2 runs a game, if that! The pitching hasn't been horrible this year, but Felix needs to step up, Lee is doing good, Fister. But here again, even if they pitch good games and give up a few runs. Our bats can't score them!

 

NEXT YEAR!! lol

[/quote']

And who could have told ya that lmao......23-39 on a 5game L streak atm.....lol...it could be worse you could be a Baltimore fan.

[o-BacklasH-o]

I just have one thing to say about the M's...What in God's name happened to Chone Figgins?! He was supposed to be the catalyst to your offense, but he looks like a shell of himself. At 8.5 million this year, you GROSSLY overpaid. Btw thanks for Carlos Silva! He's been one of the few bright spots for my Cubbies and is the leading candidate by far for NL Comeback Player of the Year (Troy Glaus a distant 2nd).

[Neoblackhound]

All I have to say is NL WEST is exciting not like the other divisions all 2 pony races and shit.

[[SoW] Lucky_Saint-]

All i gotta say is Red Sox game 5

[o-BacklasH-o]

o-Iucky-o ]

All i gotta say is Red Sox game 5

 

Let's see them make the playoffs first. The Yanks, BoSox, and Rays are all going to be battling for the Division and Wild Card. It will be interesting to watch it all unfold come September.

[[SoW] Lucky_Saint-]

BacklasH ]

o-Iucky-o ]

All i gotta say is Red Sox game 5

 

Let's see them make the playoffs first. The Yanks, BoSox, and Rays are all going to be battling for the Division and Wild Card. It will be interesting to watch it all unfold come September.

 

theyll make it always do